IMF: Guyana’s oil fund could top 34 billion soon

eyesonguyana

Georgetown, October, 12th, 2026– Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund (NRF) could reach US$34.9 billion by 2031, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reflecting a significantly stronger outlook for the country’s petroleum savings than projected a year earlier.

The forecast, contained in the IMF’s October 2026 Article IV report, puts the fund’s projected assets at approximately 69% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2031, under the government’s existing withdrawal rules.

In its 2025 Article IV report, the IMF had projected that the NRF would reach US$13.3 billion by 2030, equivalent to more than 32% of GDP. While the two projections have different end dates, the latest estimate points to substantially greater accumulation of oil wealth than previously anticipated.

The IMF expects Guyana’s share of oil profits to increase as cost-recovery outflows to petroleum companies gradually decline. 

The revised outlook follows a major development in the Stabroek Block, where ExxonMobil said approximately US$55 billion in expenditure associated with the first six oil developments had been recovered by around mid-2026, roughly two years ahead of earlier expectations.

Higher crude prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, accelerated the recovery of those expenditures, changing how quickly a greater share of petroleum production could become available as profit oil.

Under the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement, up to 75% of petroleum produced each month can be allocated to recover eligible costs. The remaining profit oil is divided equally between Guyana and the contractors, while the government also receives a 2% royalty.

As recoverable costs decline, less oil is needed for cost recovery, increasing the government’s share of production and revenue. However, new developments and ongoing operations continue to generate recoverable expenses.

The IMF’s latest outlook also anticipates further production growth.

Three additional developments — Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead — are expected to help lift Guyana’s oil output.

The Fund reported that the NRF had already accumulated approximately US$4.9 billion by the end of August 2026.

The US$34.9 billion projection remains dependent on factors including future oil prices, production, petroleum revenue and government withdrawals. The IMF has urged Guyana to maintain a long-term fiscal strategy that balances present development needs with savings for future generations.

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