The Promise and the Future of History
Suriname and the Future of the Global South
By Anton JieSamFoek eyesonsuriname
In The Future of History, political philosopher Francis Fukuyama raises a pivotal question: Can societies achieve prosperity and democracy without first building a strong, legitimate state? This question strikes at the heart of the challenges facing many nations in the Global South—Suriname among them.
Suriname now finds itself at a crossroads. Recent offshore oil discoveries offer the country an unprecedented economic opportunity. In addition, Suriname’s vast rainforests position it as a potentially significant player in emerging global CO₂ markets. Taken together, these assets could propel the nation toward a new era of prosperity, autonomy, and strategic relevance.
But promise alone is not enough—and danger lurks close behind.
A Golden Opportunity – But for Whom?
If Suriname can harness its oil wealth and climate capital wisely, it could leap forward in a single generation. Neighboring Guyana is already witnessing this transformation, attracting international investment, financial institutions, and geopolitical interest.
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Yet, the risks are as real as the resources. In a recent report, the Inter-American Development Bank warned that Latin American and Caribbean countries lose an average of 3.4% of GDP to fraud and corruption. In some nations, the figure is even higher. These hidden costs are rarely paid by elites—they are borne by everyday citizens.
Fukuyama’s Core Insight: The State Must Come First
Fukuyama outlines three pillars of a just and modern society: a strong state, accountability, and the rule of law. In many post-colonial contexts, especially in small states like Suriname, the first pillar—a capable, credible, and functional state—remains underdeveloped. Without it, natural resource wealth often becomes a curse rather than a blessing.
Suriname’s history, marked by coups, patronage politics, and weak institutions, illustrates this precariousness. The recent oil discoveries offer a new beginning—but only if accompanied by investments in transparency, education, justice, and civic engagement.
Not Just Theory – A Cultural Shift Is Needed
This is not a sterile academic discussion. It is about the practical and urgent need for a profound cultural transformation—one that enables governments not merely to plan, but to deliver results that tangibly improve people’s lives. Theories must become real, actionable policy. That requires more than bureaucracy—it demands flexibility, creativity, innovation, and bold use of high-tech solutions.
It calls for decentralized governance, rooted in deeply motivated leadership, with the courage to disrupt entrenched habits and break open closed systems. In short, it requires a new political and administrative culture—one that replaces resignation with responsibility.
Without this shift, any economic windfall will dissipate, and inequality will worsen. And if the cultural transformation comes too late, or too cheaply, it will inevitably return in a form we do not wish: brutal, unforgiving, and extraordinarily costly—socially, economically, and morally.
Criminal Networks and other thugs Standing By
Let us not be naive. As billions come into play, so too do criminal interests. International mafias and sophisticated financial predators are already circling emerging petro-states like Suriname. They exploit weak regulations, co-opt elites, and distort democratic institutions. This is not a future threat—it is happening now, in real time.
In fragile democracies, where the line between public and private interest is still unclear, the consequences can be devastating. Transparent procurement systems, independent courts, investigative journalism, and active civil society organizations are not luxuries; they are lifelines.
A Narrow Window, but Still Open
Suriname has key advantages: a young and multilingual population, rich natural and cultural capital, and historical ties to Europe and the Caribbean. If oil wealth is directed toward long-term investments in human capital, technology, and strong institutions, the country may avoid the tragic path of so many resource-rich nations before it.
But there is little time to waste. Development partners—including the IDB and the EU—must prioritize institutional resilience and governance reform, not just GDP growth. Otherwise, they risk enabling a new cycle of dependency and disenchantment.
Conclusion: The Future of History Starts Now
Fukuyama wrote that while the “end of history” may not have arrived, the struggle to build functioning states remains far from over. Suriname—and others in the Global South—are not just facing an economic opportunity, but a historical test.
The future of history is not something abstract or distant. It is forged now, in Paramaribo, Georgetown, Nairobi, Jakarta and beyond. It will be determined not by natural riches alone, but by the courage to transform governance, culture, and expectations.
The stakes are high. And if we fail, the reckoning will not be gentle.